According to the latest government statistics on national pupil projections in England, the population in state-funded schools is projected to decrease by 726,000 (9.3%) to 7,082,000 in 2031.

By 2031 there is expected to be 3,950,811 pupils in nursery and primary schools, an expected fall of 473,000 from the population in 2026.

In secondary schools, there is expected to be 2,967,150 pupils by 2031, an expected fall of 249,000 from the population in 2026.

The population attending state-funded nursery and primary schools peaked in 2019 and the figures have been gradually falling since then. This is primarily due to the number of births generally falling since 2013.

Since 2018, the population in state-funded secondary schools had been steadily increasing by around 2% a year until 2023 where it then slowed down to a 1.3% increase in 2024. Between 2024 and 2025 the secondary school pupil population plateaued and has now started to decline slowly - there was a 0.5% decrease between 2024 and 2026.

The population in state-funded special schools has seen around 6% increase per year between 2018 and 2022 and around 5% per year since 2023. Projections data indicate that numbers are expected to peak in 2027 - 2028. This is one year later than the previous projection. However, these projections do not reflect any changes that will result from the proposed SEN Reforms, as those proposals are subject to consultation.

Paul Whiteman, general secretary at school leaders’ union NAHT, said: “Falling school rolls are a real issue in many parts of the country due to declining birth rates. In some areas, including London, the higher cost of living is also forcing families to move to less expensive areas, reducing the pool of prospective pupils.

“Where pupil intake is dwindling, this puts pressure on schools’ finances given that their funding is heavily linked to pupil numbers and their fixed staffing costs do not fall in line with numbers on roll. This can affect their ability to support existing staffing and curriculum breadth, and potentially affect their long-term viability, with small and rural schools especially vulnerable.

“Successive governments have encouraged competition between schools when it comes to pupil admissions. We need an approach to school funding that supports schools experiencing falling rolls and recognises that trends can change over time - protecting existing staffing levels and seizing the opportunity to help schools offer smaller classes and deliver more targeted help for pupils who need it most.”

Michael Scott, NFER Senior Economist, said: “New pupil projections forecast that pupil numbers in England are set to fall further and faster than previously thought. Primary schools continue to be the most affected, with pupil numbers forecast to fall from 4.4 million today to 3.9 million by 2031. That would represent a 15 per cent fall since their peak in 2019 (4.6 million).

“As funding is closely linked to pupil numbers, our research has highlighted that many primary schools are already having to cut classes and staff as a result of falling roles.

“One of the most concerning things is that schools with more disadvantaged pupils appear to be bearing the brunt of falling pupil numbers. The Government should urgently assess what impact falling rolls are likely to have on disadvantaged pupils and what can be done to help schools respond.

“The new data also confirms that secondary pupil numbers have peaked at 3.2 million and are forecast to fall by eight per cent by 2031 (to a little under three million). Schools in areas such as London are likely to be hit sooner. Secondary school leaders should be keeping a close eye on how numbers are changing in their local area and plan accordingly, if they are not doing so already."