Over a third of multi-academy trusts (MATs) are forecasting an in-year deficit for 2026/27, and almost a third expect reserves to fall below 5% of income by 2028/29, according to a new report.

The report, published by IMP Software in association with the Confederation of School Trusts (CST), brings together budget forecasts from 312 MATs covering 3,929 schools for 2026/27 to 2028/29. 

Among trusts included in both this year’s and last year’s datasets, the proportion forecasting a deficit for 2026/27 has fallen from 54% to 41%. However, declining reserve headroom and uneven pressures across school phases underline the continuing challenges facing trust leaders.

Now in its third year, the report draws on the sector’s only forward-looking dataset to examine projected surpluses and deficits, reserves, pupil numbers, staffing and special educational needs provision, alongside centralisation and funding pooling. Unlike comparisons based on published accounts, it examines how trusts expect their finances to develop and, by tracking organisations included in successive reports, how their planning assumptions have changed.

For the first time, the analysis includes budgeted CEO and CFO pay, giving trustees and executives reference points for assessing remuneration alongside trust size and organisational context.

Almost a third of trusts expect reserves below 5% of income by 2028/29, a level at which the DfE considers trusts may be financially vulnerable. The proportion rises from 23% in 2026/27 to 32% by 2028/29, suggesting that financial pressures will intensify towards the end of the forecast period.

Two-thirds of trusts included in both reports now forecast higher reserves for 2026/27 than they anticipated last year. This may reflect prudent budgeting, savings or additional income. However, forecasts represent evolving planning positions rather than certain outcomes, and improved expectations do not remove the need to monitor financial resilience.

Trusts with smaller schools forecast a steeper decline in reserves. Among the quarter of trusts with the smallest schools, median reserves fall from 7.5% of income in 2026/27 to 6.2% by 2028/29, compared with 8.3% to 8.0% for the quarter with the largest schools. Primary-focused trusts also face greater projected reserve pressure, although school size and phase alone do not determine financial health.

Primary teaching assistant numbers are projected to fall more than twice as fast as pupil numbers. Between 2026/27 and 2027/28, TA full-time equivalents fall by 3.8% against a 1.6% decline in pupils, with reductions concentrated in a minority of schools. Secondary schools forecast modest pupil growth despite a declining national projection, reinforcing the importance of testing intake assumptions.

Lower-funded schools face higher pupil-to-teacher ratios whilst committing more income to teachers. Teaching costs absorb a median 39% of revenue income in the lowest-funded quarter of primary schools, compared with 34% in the highest-funded quarter. In secondary schools, the figures are 49% and 40%. This leaves lower-funded schools less flexibility for other priorities.

Special school funding varies considerably within comparable need groups. Even within the same need category, other grant income per pupil varies widely between schools, particularly in Mixed Need – Generic schools. Median income ranges from around £17,000 per pupil in Broad Need – Communication and Interaction schools to around £26,000 in Primary Need – Social, Emotional and Mental Health schools. These differences may reflect local authority funding approaches and pupil profiles, complicating planning and raising questions about equity.

Typical CEO and CFO salaries are around £160,000 and £95,000. This is the report’s first analysis of budgeted executive pay. Pay rises with trust size, but more slowly as trusts get larger.

Centralisation is increasing gradually, whilst finance costs per pupil fall with trust size. Among matched trusts, 24% now centralise all six functions examined, up from 21%. Median finance team costs range from £112 per pupil in small trusts to £94 in large trusts.

Reserve pooling remains substantially more common than GAG pooling. Some 55% of trusts pool reserves and 18% pool GAG. Approaches remain broadly stable, and the data does not establish, at this stage, that either pooling model produces a stronger financial position.