Ofqual examines GCSE variability in year-on-year results

Ofqual has published a report analysing the pattern of variability in the outcomes of schools and college GCSE results, in a bid to understand the patterns of volatility in the qualifications system.

The report found that the majority of centres displayed little year-on-year variation. However, some centres displayed significant variation, with commentators expressing concern that the comparable outcomes approach in managing grade inflation could be having a differential effect on some centres.

Such examples included, schools and colleges operating a more challenging context, such as those with a significant percentage of students from low socio-economic status backgrounds, or pupils who speak English as a second language.

The study outlines centre type and entry stability as factors which were found to be associated with GCSE variability. In particular, selective and independent centres were found to have less variability in grades A* - C than other centre types. Ofqual maintained this is most likely because the distribution of grades within these centres tends to be comfortably within grades A* - C rather than straddling or centering on the C/D grade boundary.

Furthermore, centres with stable year-on-year entry numbers are likely to show less variability than those with changes in entry size between years.

The report concluded: “We intend to conduct further, more sensitive, analysis when student level data for prior attainment, free school meal eligibility and the deprivation index become available to better understand whether these systematic factors are associated with year-on-year variability.”