Just 16 per cent of predicted A-level grades correct, study shows

The University and College Union (UCU) is calling for an overhaul of university applications after a new study found that just 16 per cent of predicted A-level grades are correct.

The UCU’s report analysed the results of 1.3 million young people over a three year period and found that 75 per cent of predicted grades were ‘over-predicted’, with students failing to reach the grades their teachers thought they would, while nine per cent of grades were ‘under-predicted’.

While state schools were found to be the most likely to over-predict, the report also found that the most able students from disadvantaged backgrounds were most likely to be underestimated.

Additionally, 24 per cent of AAB applicants from lower income backgrounds are under-predicted compared to 20 per cent of AAB applicants from the highest income backgrounds.

Sally Hunt, UCU general secretary, stressed that the report is not a criticism of hard working teachers tasked with the ‘impossible job’ of grade predicting, but a criticism of a ‘broken system’.

The UCU has called for a complete overhaul of the UK’s university applications system, saying the UK should employ ‘the same system as the rest of the world’ and allow students to apply with firm results through a post-qualifications admission (PQA) system.

Hunt explained: “This report exposes the vast majority of predicted grades as guestimates, which are not fit to be the basis on which young people and universities take key decisions about their futures.

“This report is a damning indictment on a broken system, not the hard-working teachers tasked with the impossible job of trying to make predictions. The results strongly support our call for a complete overhaul of the system, where students apply after they receive their results.

“It is quite absurd that the UK is the only country that persists with using such a broken system.”